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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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