We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of se ...
|
|
|
Showing 1761 to 1765 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
