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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 11 April 18
CHINA UTILITIES PLAN NEW COAL IMPORT PRICE INDEX TO CURB VOLATILITY - REUTERS
China’s major utilities are preparing to launch their own coal price index for imports, an official at China Huaneng Group said, in a move th ...
Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most li ...
Tuesday, 10 April 18
BUMA GRANTED ADDITIONAL LOAN FACILITY FROM BTMU TO SUPPORT GROWTH
Press Release: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), signed an a ...
Monday, 09 April 18
APRIL INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST IN 2018
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 6.98 per cent in April 2018 compared to Mar ...
Friday, 06 April 18
TOP MINER BHP QUITS WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION OVER CLIMATE CLASH - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd. has severed ties with the World Coal Association over a clash of views on how to combat climate change, with the mining giant say ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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