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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 18 May 18
INDONESIA'S SAMARINDA ANCHORAGE COAL LOADING ACTIVITIES WERE RESUMED YESTERDAY AT 4PM LOCAL TIME
Samarinda Anchorage coal loading activities were resumed yesterday at 4PM local time.
Local fishermen in Samarinda Anchorage have been demonst ...
Wednesday, 16 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Half-way through the second quarter of the year and as the Posidonia week approaches everyone is getting ready for this unique gathering that besid ...
Thursday, 10 May 18
PRIVATE POWER PRODUCERS NEED A 'POWERFUL PUSH' - PRADEEP MITTAL
- PLF of the Private Sector in the country (Coal and Lignite based) for FY 2017-18 (till Dec 2017) is 56%.
- 51 GW of stressed assets (Thermal &a ...
Tuesday, 08 May 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$1 BILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT INDONESIA PRATAMA
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, has entered into mining services contracts with PT Indones ...
Monday, 07 May 18
BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DROPPED BACK BELOW $90 A TON THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1812 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 3 May 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 5.5 ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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