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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 07 May 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA MIDLAND POWER ISSUED A TENDER FOR 1 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Monday, 07 May 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND ROSE ABOUT 1% IN 2017; ASIA ACCOUNTED FOR THE LARGEST INCREASE IN COAL DEMAND, UP 35 MTOE RELATIVE TO 2016 - IEA
Global coal demand rose about 1% in 2017, reversing the declining trend seen over the last two years. This growth was mainly due to demand in Asia, ...
Friday, 04 May 18
ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES WAS SECOND ONLY TO COAL IN 2017 - IEA
World electricity demand increased by 3.1 %, significantly higher than the overall increase in energy demand. Together, China and India accounted f ...
Thursday, 03 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO - CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW-MID $12000 BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
As expected a slow and uneventful start to the week with holidays in many countries, however by mid-week some fresh requirements and pos ...
Tuesday, 01 May 18
SUPRAMAX: COAL RUNS, A 61,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SURABAYA, FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY INDIA AT $15,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates eased in the East, as the week closed out with the momentum slowing. Levels on the key West Australia/China run dropped to $7.25 ...
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Showing 1726 to 1730 news of total 6871 |
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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