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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $85/MT IN 2018, DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2017 - WORLD BANK
Coal prices rose 4 percent in the first quarter (q/q), following a surge of 34 percent in 2017, mainly due to strong consumption in China spurred b ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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