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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 30 May 18
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Tuesday, 29 May 18
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT DECLINES IN APRIL AMID DIVERSION TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - PTI
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Monday, 28 May 18
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Monday, 28 May 18
KOMIPO ISSUED ANOTHER TENDER FOR 130K MT OF 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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