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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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