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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 05 June 18
THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE PROMISING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Just as we thought the world was calming back down to reason, worries and frictions regarding global trade resurfaced this past week after a series ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IS GOING UP AGAIN
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1857 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 4 June 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) up 7.91 pe ...
Saturday, 02 June 18
HOW CARBON UTILISATION WILL BE A KEY STEP IN INDIA'S CLIMATE STRATEGY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
For India, energy remains the key driver of growth, not only from an economic perspective but more importantly for accelerating social development. ...
Thursday, 31 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS GETTING FIXED AROUND $13K DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Cape market has been on a downward trend for the past week.
According to Fearnleys, Oslo based broker, Brazil market ...
Wednesday, 30 May 18
HIGH PRICE, DMO ENCOURAGE COAL MINERS TO BOOST PRODUCTION - THE JAKARTA POST
A number of coal miners are planning to increase production by 10 percent in the second half of this year after a worldwide price increase.
Th ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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