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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 11 June 18
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Monday, 11 June 18
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Friday, 08 June 18
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Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
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Tuesday, 05 June 18
SOUTH KOREA'S SULPHUR CAP ALTERS ASIAN COAL MARKET DYNAMICS: RUSSELL
South Korea’s imposition of a strict sulphur cap on its imported coal is likely to cause ripples across Asia’s markets for the pollutin ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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