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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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