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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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