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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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