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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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