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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 14 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
The second month of the year is traditionally a particularly interesting one for the shipping industry as a whole and even more importantly for the ...
Monday, 12 February 18
PANAMAX: WITH LIMITED FRESH ENQUIRY IN ALL AREAS, SPOT MARKET RATES DRIFTED LOWER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A switch to the Atlantic with rates firming as charterers seemed keen to fix and tonnage was tight, prompting a recovery in rates. Trans ...
Monday, 12 February 18
WORLDWIDE: 'DEMURRAGE CLAIMS' FOR THE PURPOSES OF DOCUMENTARY TIME BARS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 2 February 2018 the Commercial Court allowed an appeal from a decision of the Arbitration Tribunal in Lukoil Asia Paci ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
COAL INDIA ON PATH OF SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION GROWTH AND SUPPLY TO POWER AND NON POWER SECTOR - PIB
Supply of 371.8 MT of Coal to Power Sector and 103.1 MT Coal to Non-Power Sector Achieved in 2017-18 Till January,2018 Average Rake Loading To The ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfo ...
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Showing 1806 to 1810 news of total 6871 |
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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