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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 06 February 18
THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR INDIAN COAL IMPORTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROMISING - TORVALD KLAVENESS
Back in August we reported that the fundamentals impacting Indian coal imports looked more promising.
Trade flow data today implies 17.4Mt of ...
Monday, 05 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO INDIA PASSING THROUGH SINGAPORE HAS SOFTENED
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has softened, week over week, own ...
Friday, 02 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIPS ARE PAYING AROUND MID USD 9000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rather quiet week within Atl, specially Continent due to lack of cargoes.
According to Fearnleys Weekly - Dry bulk report published ...
Friday, 02 February 18
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 54.1 MMST, DOWN 8.8% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tons ...
Thursday, 01 February 18
RISING US OIL EXPORTS, MARKET DISRUPTION, BRENT-WTI SPREAD - WOOD MACKENZIE
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
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Showing 1816 to 1820 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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