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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 24 February 18
CHINA BECOMES WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST LNG IMPORTER, BEHIND JAPAN - EIA
China surpassed South Korea to become the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2017, according to data from IHS ...
Friday, 23 February 18
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.8 PER CENT W/E 17 FEB' 18 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.6 million short tons ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
WHY THE COMMODITY RALLY WILL GET BACK ON TRACK - SIMON FLOWERS
Implications for the US dollar and producers
Are we in the early stages of a sustained rise in commodity prices? And what does it mean for the ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
PANAMAX: IT HAS BEEN A SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slight improvement from Atlantic with more hope for upcoming weeks. More grain cargoes from Black Sea made fhaul rates better again $17- ...
Wednesday, 21 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2017 proved to be a relatively good year with positive margins for the Dry Bulk market. Especially during the last quarter of the year everyone can ...
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Showing 1796 to 1800 news of total 6871 |
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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