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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 09 February 18
COAL BUYERS SPOOKED BY INDONESIA'S NEW SHIPPING RULES - ASSOC
Buyers of Indonesian coal are holding back orders of the fuel after the government issued new shipping rules for coal and crude palm oil that would ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA LIMITED HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS - UNION MINISTER OF RAILWAYS AND COAL
According to press release from PIB, as per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to impo ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
A NEW WEEK WITH A SOFT SENTIMENT AND DECREASING RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERE FOR THE PANAMAXES, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG dropping remarkably due to lack of fresh enquiry both for fhaul and bhaul, Supras were fixed from USG to Spore-Japan range now aroun ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO HIT THIRTEEN-MONTH HIGH OF $100.69 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) rose 5.39 per cent in February 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure ...
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Showing 1811 to 1815 news of total 6871 |
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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