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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 20 February 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORT RISES BY 12 PER CENT TO 18 MILLION TONNES IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal import increased by 12.4 per cent to 18.49 million tonnes (MT) in January, against 16.
44 MT in the same month of the ...
Monday, 19 February 18
JOINT INSURANCE - WHY SHOULD YOU CARE? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is neither controversial nor new to say that co-assureds under a joint insurance policy cannot claim against each othe ...
Friday, 16 February 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DOWN 4.5 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Thursday, 15 February 18
INDIA: THERMAL POWER PLANTS UNDER STRESS ON RISING COAL, FREIGHT COSTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal-based power plants are feeling the heat of spike in thermal grade coal prices and railway freight costs.
Prices of thermal grade coal sin ...
Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 o ...
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Showing 1801 to 1805 news of total 6871 |
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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