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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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