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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 20 March 18
TRAFIGURA GROUP PTE LTD SIGNS RECORD US$5.725 BILLION EUROPEAN MULTICURRENCY SYNDICATED REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITIES AND JPY72.64 BILLION DENOMINATED THREE YEAR TERM LOAN
Press Release: Trafigura Group Pte Ltd. (“Trafigura” or the “Company”), a market leader in the global commodities industry, ...
Monday, 19 March 18
PANAMAX: DESPITE FEWER REPORTED PERIOD TRADES THIS WEEK, RATE LEVELS HAVE REMAINED SOLID - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
There were finally reports of increased Brazil activity, but still largely unconfirmed. Vale reportedly took six ships Thursday for 5 Ap ...
Friday, 16 March 18
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.9 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.8 million short tons ...
Friday, 16 March 18
INDONESIA COAL PRICE CAP POSES LIMITED RISKS TO PRODUCERS : FITCH
Indonesia’s cap on the benchmark price of coal sold to the domestic electricity sector is unlikely to have a significant impact on the credit ...
Thursday, 15 March 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW $13K TO S. CHINA AND HIGH $13K TO NORTH IN CHINA
Supramax
More activity from USG , front hauls to Far East have settled around $25000, and to Cont around $20000. Stable gain again in Black Sea w ...
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Showing 1766 to 1770 news of total 6871 |
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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