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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of se ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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