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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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