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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 18 April 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The return of traders and charterers from the Easter festivities came along with a slight increase in activity across the edible oil markets. Howev ...
Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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