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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
SUPRAMAX: COAL RUNS, A 61,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SURABAYA, FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY INDIA AT $15,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates eased in the East, as the week closed out with the momentum slowing. Levels on the key West Australia/China run dropped to $7.25 ...
Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
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Showing 1731 to 1735 news of total 6871 |
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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