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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 26 April 18
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $85/MT IN 2018, DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2017 - WORLD BANK
Coal prices rose 4 percent in the first quarter (q/q), following a surge of 34 percent in 2017, mainly due to strong consumption in China spurred b ...
Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker f ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMPORTING INDONESIAN COAL MAKES SENSE FOR INDIAN COASTAL PLANTS EVEN WHEN IT IS COSTLIER THAN INDIAN - ECONOMIC TIMES
Rising Indonesian coal production and lower Chinese demand have pulled down Indonesian coal prices by 22% over the last 45 days, a trend that augur ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritim ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
TWO 56K-DWT OPEN HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE WERE FIXED FOR INDONESIA COAL TRIPS TO CHINA, AT $9,500 AND $11,000 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week has seen the Cape 5 timecharter weighted average almost double. Similarly, the Brazil to China ore rates climbed over $4.50, f ...
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Showing 1736 to 1740 news of total 6871 |
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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