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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
"ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE": ARRIVAL, DEPARTURE OR BOTH? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An “always accessible” berth warranty is often used by an owner to transfer the risk of delays in berthing to ...
Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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