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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
Wednesday, 04 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2 years tanker briefing in tanker asset prices
The tanker market is undoubtedly passing one of its’ roughest times over the la ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specific ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end o ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL OVERTAKES IRON ORE IN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AS AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST EXPORT FOR 2018-19 - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Coal is forecast to be Australia’s largest export earner at $58.1 billion in 2018-19 with iron ore exports forecast to earn $57.7 billion in ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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