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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
Monday, 11 June 18
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES HIT 6-YEAR HIGH AS ASIA DEMAND SPIKES - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have risen to their highest level since 2012 as hot weather across North Asia spurs buying ahead of the peak summer ...
Monday, 11 June 18
ANALYSING A NEW AGE OF AUTONOMOUS VESSELS - IMO
The International Maritime Organization answers the questions of Government Europa on how the next generation of autonomous vessels can be regulate ...
Friday, 08 June 18
AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES SURGE AS ASIA DEMAND HEATS UP - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit their highest level since late 2016 as the market heats up on strong demand across North Asia and China in ...
Wednesday, 06 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
As observed last month the price of oil hit its highest level since November 2014 reaching $80 per barrel. Global oil demand growth for 2018 was sl ...
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Showing 1701 to 1705 news of total 6871 |
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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