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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
CHINESE REDUCED COAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS - CAIXIN GLOBAL
Caixin Global reported that the Chinese government has reduced restrictions on coal imports at the nation’s major ports in response to concer ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADMITS COAL SHORTAGE, ASKS DISCOMS TO IMPORT - TIMES OF INDIA
Times of India reported that the power ministry has advised all state governments and private power distribution companies to import coal as Coal I ...
Tuesday, 19 June 18
WCA RESPONDS TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2018
Responding to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive of the World Coal Association (WCA) said, &ldqu ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 2% TO 756 MILLION SHORT TONS MMST IN 2018 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decline by 2% to 756 million short tons (MMst) in 2018.
According to EIA's Short-Term Ener ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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