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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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