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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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