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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
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