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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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