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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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