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Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the International Energy Agency, the US will overtake Russia as the world’s #1 crude oil producer by next year, having surpassed 10m bpd in late 2017 and slated to surpass 11m bpd by the end of 2018.
Over the past two years US shale oil companies have managed to become more efficient, optimizing production processes and utilizing new technologies and practices at lower costs. This is attributed in part to technological breakthroughs on the drilling side; Break-even points for US production have been driven substantially downward. It remains to be seen if this increase will be sustainable but at this point most pundits do not see production peaking before 2020.
The booming production has of course unnerved other producers and oil markets globally and comes at a time when other producers have voluntarily capped their own production in order to prop up prices. During 2017, we witnessed the spike in prices due to OPEC production cuts with prices steadily correcting upwards since November 2016. Oil is currently trading in the low $60s, after peaking at a 3-year high of ~$66pb.
OPEC and its allied producers are seeing their market shares eroded by the increasing US production. At the same time, US oil imports are also dropping, further shrinking profits from OPEC established markets. With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the commodity price will fare under these new conditions.
US shale production will be extremely important to watch over the next 5 years. It is almost certain that production will continue to grow in the next years. However, a number of factors will determine if this growth will be sustainable long term and how the market will balance itself under a future -potentially different- status quo.
On the tanker side a growing US production is good news as exports from the country could be offering more and more support to rates in the future as apart from Europe and Latin America, the long haul trips to the Far East and particularly to China is gaining increasing momentum. Thomson Reuters data reveals that US shipments specifically to China that were non-existent prior to 2016 have now reached a new record of around 2.01 million metric tonnes or 474,450 barrels/day during last month. Sinopec, the biggest oil refiner in China, expects to import 10 million metric tonnes of crude oil from the US during 2018. As the production cap from OPEC and Russia continues, the fairly new and quickly increasing flow of the commodity from the US to S. Korea, Japan and China is definitely something to watch out for.
Additionally as a growing US production will almost certainly keep undermining OPECs efforts to boost oil prices, this means that the price of the commodity will keep moving – at least for the short to medium term- within a specific range that is still considered attractive for consuming countries maybe not compared to early 2016 levels but certainly when compared to mid-2014 levels of around $ 100/barrel.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive - Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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