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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 May 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL ROUNDS LEVELS WITH DELIVERY CHINA IS TRADING AROUND LOW $6K, TRIP BACK TO CHINA
Supramax
The short week brought weaker rates across all routes. Supras from USG to Japan were fixed around $19-20 k daily and from ECSA to ECI $1 ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MALAYSIA SEEMS AS BIGGEST ADARO COAL IMPORTER IN Q1' 17
COALspot.com: In 1Q17, 30% of Adaro's sales went to Indonesia, the data from unaudited consolidated financial statement shows.
Malaysia ca ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The overall performance of each sector within the edible oil markets has remained poor for the past weeks. Apart from the veg oil exports fro ...
Tuesday, 02 May 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUE TO SLUMP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, as all segments except Handy Size show a negative downward trend.
The Balt ...
Friday, 28 April 17
U.S PRODUCED LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14 million short tons ( ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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