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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 May 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL ROUNDS LEVELS WITH DELIVERY CHINA IS TRADING AROUND LOW $6K, TRIP BACK TO CHINA
Supramax
The short week brought weaker rates across all routes. Supras from USG to Japan were fixed around $19-20 k daily and from ECSA to ECI $1 ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MALAYSIA SEEMS AS BIGGEST ADARO COAL IMPORTER IN Q1' 17
COALspot.com: In 1Q17, 30% of Adaro's sales went to Indonesia, the data from unaudited consolidated financial statement shows.
Malaysia ca ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The overall performance of each sector within the edible oil markets has remained poor for the past weeks. Apart from the veg oil exports fro ...
Tuesday, 02 May 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUE TO SLUMP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, as all segments except Handy Size show a negative downward trend.
The Balt ...
Friday, 28 April 17
U.S PRODUCED LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14 million short tons ( ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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