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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - w ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 0.99 PERCENT LESS COAL IN APRIL 2017
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,636.2 ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE CAPESIZE INDEX ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market slightly up this past week, as BDI and Cape shows a positive trend week over week.
The Baltic Exchange, track ...
Friday, 12 May 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AGAIN WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million short tons ...
Friday, 12 May 17
SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET
Supramax
In the Atlantic, only USG were showing some improvement, where pet-coke cargoes to India was fixed in the range of 19-23k daily and to C ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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