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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 April 17
DELTA DUNIA RECORDED $24 MILLION NET PROFIT FOR FIRST QUARTER OF 2017; UP 700% Y/Y
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2017 yesterday. According to the ...
Thursday, 27 April 17
PACIFIC IS SOFTENING WITH MORE TONNAGE OPENING AND LESS COAL ORDERS AROUND - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Relatively slow week, with both basins showing signs of cooling down. Although grain cargoes out ECSA and ECCA on Ultras still delivered ...
Wednesday, 26 April 17
IRON ORE PRICES HAVE BEEN ON A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Iron ore prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the last month. Prices started the year on a very positive note, surging up to their highest ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
FIONA POUNDS: VALID TENDER OF NOTICE OF READINESS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the recent English High Court case of MV Arundel Castle1, the Judge ruled that a vessel, that could not immediately pr ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Over the weekend we witnessed a second win over the rising populism that has become present in global politics since last summer, Allied shipping s ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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