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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 April 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS DOWN WEEK OVER WEEK EXCEPT FOR HANDYSIZE SEGMENT
COALspot.com: The Freight market was fell, week over a week as all segments show a negative downward trend except Handy Size segment this past week ...
Friday, 21 April 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE UP, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
SHIPPING POOLS: DON'T JUST DIVE IN - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping pools can be an attractive option for ship owners and operators, particularly in difficult markets and during periods of economic uncertai ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL ON ITS UPWARD MOMENTUM - ALLIED SHIPPING
Having gone through the first quarter of the year and with the Easter break having no come and gone, it seems as though the dry bulk market is stil ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
CHINA'S IMPORT OF IRON ORE TO PROPEL DRY BULK SHIPPING DEMAND IN 2017 - PETER SAND
China's import of iron ore will continue to be a key driver for the demand growth in 2017 for the dry bulk shipping industry, alongside shippin ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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