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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in ...
Tuesday, 09 May 17
DRY BULK TRADE IS STILL HEAVILY RELIANT ON CHINA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have seen an overall cool down in the dry bulk and tanker markets over the final two weeks of April, sparking worries amongst ship-owners that t ...
Monday, 08 May 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose in May, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian therm ...
Monday, 08 May 17
OCEAN BULK CARGO RATES FALL FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, with all segments show a negative downward trend week over week.
The Balti ...
Monday, 08 May 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE DOWN - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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