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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 17
TANKERS WEEKLY MARKET NOTE - ALLIED
It’s been a turbulent couple of weeks on the oil front, with the effectiveness of OPEC’s policy being under debate amongst most traders ...
Monday, 22 May 17
THE SHIPPING INDEX DECLINES AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Freight market again decline this past week, as BDI and all other indexes show a negative trend week over week.
The Baltic E ...
Friday, 19 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 18 May 17
SUPRAMAX : COAL TRIPS TO CHINA WITH VESSELS OPEN INDO HAVE BEEN FIXED AROUND $8000
Supramax
Atlantic market has stayed quiet with no substantial developments.
Cont to Med scrap cargoes have concluded around 11k says Fearnle ...
Thursday, 18 May 17
SOUTHEAST ASIA CAN ACCELERATE ACHIEVEMENT OF PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS - WCA
Low emissions coal in Asia reduces more CO2 emissions than renewable investment in Western Europe.
Investing in low emissions coal plants in S ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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