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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 June 17
U.S THE PAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP 4.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15 million short tonnes ...
Tuesday, 30 May 17
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fair performance that has been noted in the Chinese economy over the past 5 months, we have started to see an increase in the skepticis ...
Friday, 26 May 17
MOST COAL PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES WERE BUILT BEFORE 1990 - EIA
Coal-fired electricity generators accounted for 25% of operating electricity generating capacity in the United States and generated about 30% of U. ...
Friday, 26 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATE UP 6.3% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.3 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 24 May 17
LR MARKET IT SEEMS THAT EARNINGS ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the summer season, the Clean Product market appears poised to become more challenging, either on East or West of Suez.
L ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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