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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 June 17
U.S THE PAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP 4.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15 million short tonnes ...
Tuesday, 30 May 17
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fair performance that has been noted in the Chinese economy over the past 5 months, we have started to see an increase in the skepticis ...
Friday, 26 May 17
MOST COAL PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES WERE BUILT BEFORE 1990 - EIA
Coal-fired electricity generators accounted for 25% of operating electricity generating capacity in the United States and generated about 30% of U. ...
Friday, 26 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATE UP 6.3% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.3 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 24 May 17
LR MARKET IT SEEMS THAT EARNINGS ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the summer season, the Clean Product market appears poised to become more challenging, either on East or West of Suez.
L ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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