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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 February 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.9% W/W; ROSE 17.7% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 03 February 17
US - EXECUTIVE ORDER ON IMMIGRATION AFFECTS VESSEL CREWS - GARD
From 27 January 2017, crew members carrying Iraqi, Syrian, Sudanese, Iranian, Somalian, Libyan or Yemeni passports are temporarily barred from ente ...
Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry ...
Tuesday, 31 January 17
A CASE OF NEW YEAR BLUES FOR THE FAR EAST? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Unlike the typical lull in the market that we note during the period just prior to the Chinese New Year, 2017 has proved to be fairly m ...
Monday, 30 January 17
DUE TO LUNAR YEAR HOLIDAYS, THE FREIGHT MARKET STAYED WEAK
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was down in all segments this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tra ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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