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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 08 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
The challenges the oil market has witnessed since the end of 2014 has resulted in a crisis for the global offshore oil and gas exploration industry ...
Tuesday, 07 February 17
WE ARE STILL RIDING ON A WAVE OF MARKET IMPROVEMENT, WITH THE GLOBAL TRADE OF MOST COMMODITIES STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING GROWTH - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The end of 2016 came with a rejuvenated sentiment amongst most traders and investors, in part through the sigh of relief that 2016 was finally comi ...
Monday, 06 February 17
AFTER MONTHS OF GAINS, THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED MONTHLY COAL BENCHMARK PRICE IS STEADILY DROPPING
COALspot.com: Over the past two months, the HBA of Indonesian thermal coal has dropped around 18.06 percent. It sank to $ 83.32 per ton for Februar ...
Monday, 06 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNFALL IN ALL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was declined in all segments week ending 27 January. The fall was cont ...
Friday, 03 February 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.13 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 1,130,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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