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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 February 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Looking at the state of the Dry Bulk market exactly a year ago, there is no doubt that there is a significant improvement and despite the fact that ...
Tuesday, 14 February 17
OPTIMISM HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY FLOW BACK INTO THE DRY BULK MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Optimism has started to slowly flow back into the dry bulk market, with many in the market showing renewed optimism as the Pacific basin starts to ...
Monday, 13 February 17
COMBINED COAL SALES OF BUMI RESOURCES ROSE TO 87.7 MILLION TONS IN FY'16; UP 10.6 PERCENT Y/Y
COALspot.com: Combined Coal Sales of Bumi Resources rose to 87.7 million tons in FY’16 compared with 79.3 million tons in FY’15. ...
Monday, 13 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO TUMBLE IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continued its downfall in all segments except Panamax for the week ending 10 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 10 February 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECLINED BY 158 MMST IN 2016 TO 739 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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