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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 January 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT RISES FOR THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made ...
Tuesday, 24 January 17
MARKET UPDATE - ALLIED
This week at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos we had a historic first via the attendance and speech given by China’s pre ...
Monday, 23 January 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED $AU 15.279 BILLION WORTH OF 161.399 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2016
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,453.1 M ...
Monday, 23 January 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WAS ALMOST AT SAME LEVELS AS LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market did not change much and was almost at same levels as last week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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