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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED 15.7 MMST; UP 14.1% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
KOREAN POWER UTILITY BORYEONG POWER TO IMPORT 660K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 590,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal and 7000 ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
PANAMAX RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market remained flat and the week continued at the same pace as last.
According to Fearnleys weekly dry bulk report, still more ...
Wednesday, 18 January 17
TANKER: THE CLEAN PRODUCT MARKET IS STILL NOT GIVING US ANY CLEAR SIGNS OF RECOVERY - GEORGE VASTARDIS
While we are approaching the Chinese New Year, the Clean Product market is still not giving us any clear signs of recovery, especially on The East ...
Monday, 16 January 17
WHY THE SOLUTION TO INDIA'S ENERGY CHALLENGE LIES IN COAL POWER PLANTS - BENJAMIN SPORTON
India’s huge development and energy challenges mean there are economic and development arguments for investing in new coal power plants for t ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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