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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINA SUSPENDS COAL IMPORTS FROM NORTH KOREA FROM 19 FEB
COALspot.com: China is suspended coal imports from North Korea until December 2017. China says it will suspend all imports of coal from North Korea ...
Monday, 20 February 17
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES SLIGHTLY UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week. The Panamax segment was declined for the week ending 17 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 17 February 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million sh ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE EXPERIENCED A STRONG DOWNTURN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market has shifted sides from Atlantic to Pacific, where Atlantic is now lagging behind with little action and sliding indices, notably ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
IF I PLAN TO UNDERTAKE A CHARTERPARTY WITH AN UNFAMILIAR ENTITY, WHAT STEPS CAN I TAKE TO ENSURE THE CHARTERER WILL PAY THEIR HIRE? - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to the difficult conditions currently existing in the shipping market, particularly in the offshore sector, Members a ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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