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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 February 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED AT 16.8 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 February 17
ULTRA SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA IS GETTING AROUND $10-11K BASIS SINGAPORE DELIVERY
Supramax
The week started off quietly in the Atlantic with more activity in the Pacific basin.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, frontha ...
Wednesday, 22 February 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
In 2016 a session of the IMO committee in London, set the new prerequisites effective from January 2020, which will necessitate global Sulphur cont ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
INDIA'S JANUARY COAL IMPORTS DECLINE 21.7 PERCENT YEAR -ON-YEAR TO 14.31 MT - PTI
Coal imports declined by 21.7 per cent to 14.31 million tonnes in January as the power utilities did not lift much fuel due to abundant stock avail ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINESE EXPORTS SHOWED A YEAR-ON-YEAR RISE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TEN MONTHS; S. KOREA'S EXPORTS UP FOR PAST THREE MONTHS IN A ROW - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have started to some sparks of life in the commodities markets these past weeks, with prices having shown a strong push during the past couple o ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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